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After merging into Baowu, TISCO developed like this! Summary of the conference on interpretation of TISCO's first quarter report of stainless steel
After merging into Baowu, TISCO developed like this! Summary of the conference on interpretation of TISCO's first quarter report of stainless steel
Source: Release date: 2021 / 5 / 14 11:57:31 Number of hits:
1¡¢ Company interpretation
The company's net profit to the parent company in the first quarter was 1.6-2.1 billion, an increase of 971.17% - 1305.90% over the same period of last year. The net profit of the whole year in 2020 is expected to be 1.74 billion. The reasons why the first quarter's performance exceeded the expectation can be divided into three aspects: macro, industry and internal reasons.
In the first quarter of 2021, according to the statistics of the overall industry background, the national steel production from January to February will reach 2.966 million tons, and the steel production in March is expected to be 3 million tons, both of which are at the same historical level. The main reason for the large supply is that there is more demand. After the Spring Festival, the iron and steel industry started to resume work rapidly, and the situation exceeded expectations. The inventory of steel mills decreased rapidly and the prices rose rapidly. Among them, carbon steel * * is about 5600, non oriented silicon steel is about 8900, 304 series stainless steel is up to 1640, 3 series stainless steel is up to 11000, 1316 is more than 20000, and the price is relatively good.
The downstream demand side is mainly divided into five major industries: household appliances, automobiles, ships, railways and construction machinery. Among them, the demand for new energy vehicles increased by 360% from January to February this year compared with that of last year. The main demand was silicon steel and electrical steel. The market was short of supply and demand, and there was no inventory. The market basically set the output after two months. In terms of household appliance industry, the domestic household appliance industry is responsible for the global supply of household appliances, with a growth rate of about 70% over the same period last year in terms of refrigerators, air conditioners and washing machines. Construction machinery grew rapidly, and excavators, loaders and bulldozers had a strong demand for steel. Digging Xitong increased by 1.5 times compared with last year, while loaders and bulldozers increased by about 80% over the same period last year.
The supply side increased and the demand side was strong. The steel price began to rise all the way from the fourth quarter of 2020 because of the rising prices of raw materials (coking coal, coke, iron ore). Nickel relatively increased, but less than iron ore, coke compared to the rise. At present, the futures market price of nickel is about 160000, and the price of ferrochrome has increased by a large margin in the near future, which also strongly supports the price increase of stainless steel 300 series and 400 series. Overall, the benefits are good.
Internally, after TISCO was incorporated into Baowu system, the mechanism changed. According to the slogan "* *" benefit ", it brings advantages in market prediction after merging into Baowu. It increases the reserve of raw materials when the price of raw materials is low, so it has a great advantage in the cost side. In addition, the company's own varieties and specifications of steel are relatively more, the higher the profit margin, the higher the range of regulation.
Combined with the above great advantages, the company's current performance is better than that of the same period last year, and even better than that of the whole year last year. In terms of output, the company's output is basically at full capacity. Compared with the same period last year, the output has little change, mainly due to the advantages of variety structure and cost compared with other iron and steel enterprises.
2¡¢ Questioning session
1. What is the approximate output of electrical steel in the first quarter? How much has the profit increased compared with last year? What is the difference between last year's gross profit and this year's gross profit?
Electrical steel is divided into two parts, oriented silicon steel and non oriented silicon steel. Non oriented silicon steel is a traditional product of the company, and oriented silicon steel is a new project invested in recent two years, reaching the production capacity last year. In terms of product capacity, the annual production capacity of non oriented silicon steel is 600000-700000 tons, and that of oriented silicon steel is 500000 tons, which is full production this year. Electrical steel demand, and the operating rate is not very close, four quarters of production are almost the same. In terms of price in previous years, the price of high-grade non oriented silicon steel was around 4000 yuan, and this year it has reached nearly 9000 yuan. In fact, the cost side has not changed much, but the demand side has increased significantly, and it has become a kind of product with profit in history.
2. In terms of raw material cost, is the cost advantage derived from the group's price discount, can it continue in the next few quarters, or is it a phased cost advantage? In terms of iron ore price, will the company and the group determine the price of this quarter based on the last quarter or the price of the whole year last year?
Because the annual supply of raw materials with the group is a related transaction, there are related agreements every year. Basically, the price is reduced by 85%, and the pricing standard is pushed forward (the later price is determined based on the previous price). So in the process of iron ore rising, the company has a lot of advantages in iron ore. The price is relatively flexible. Normally speaking, the price is determined in half a year, that is, the price in the first half year is determined in the second half year, and the price in the second half year is determined in the first half year. However, sometimes, due to the reason of large increase, and the iron ore of the group belongs to state-owned assets, it can not cause excessive loss of state-owned assets (SASAC has relevant guidance), so the price is sometimes flexibly adjusted, such as quarterly.
In terms of energy consumption, i.e. the so-called coke, the joint stock company has two coke ovens, the self-sufficiency rate of blast furnace has reached 90%, the annual output of coke is 3 million tons, and the outsourcing rate is 10%, which is relatively small. In terms of coke, it also brings cost advantages to the company.
In terms of electric power, there are more power generation enterprises in Shanxi, and the advantages of electric power compared with other places are also obvious but not obvious.
3. The performance of the first quarter is particularly good. What is the company's view on the sustainability of the performance in the second quarter and the second half of the year?
The company believes that the second quarter will change a lot in terms of policy, and the production restriction and capacity ratio will be relatively large, but from the traditional point of view, the second quarter should be a peak season with a relatively full operating rate. The company predicted that the second quarter will continue the trend of the first quarter. In the second half of this year, the company maintains a cautious and optimistic attitude, which may be subject to more changes in the international situation. Now the market is relatively good, the key is that the export of home appliances, construction machinery, ships, etc. is relatively large, mainly because foreign countries have entered the post epidemic era, and the operating rate is insufficient. Therefore, in the second half of the year, under the influence of the international situation, the company could not make a clear judgment, so it formed a cautious and optimistic situation.
4. What are the specific improvement and goals for the company's operation after merging into Baowu?
Baowu has many steel listed companies with a production capacity of more than 100 million tons. In terms of management, it is basically modular management, and the leading idea is the benefit. Through the management of * * management, the idea of * * benefit leading, and the improvement of steel production capacity concentration, the company's bargaining power is improved during this period, and the market analysis is more thorough, and sometimes it can lead the market.
Baowu positioning Taigang is Baowu's flagship platform of stainless steel, and continues to lead the domestic and global in stainless steel. In terms of production capacity, increase the market share. At present, the global stainless steel production capacity is 50 million tons, and the domestic production capacity is 30 million tons. The concentration of stainless steel industry is more concentrated than that of ordinary steel. In the 30 million tons market, Baowu has set a target for TISCO to reach 15 million tons in three years. In addition, in terms of self-sufficiency, nickel resources will reach 30% and chromium resources will reach 50%.
The target is arduous, and the way to improve production capacity is relatively flexible. In the process of acquisition under Baowu, some stainless steel enterprises were acquired under Baowu platform. The acquired enterprises also have standards, that is, they have raw material advantages and are close to the market. In addition, the company hopes to go abroad and establish production bases in Indonesia and South Africa. From the capacity, cost, varieties and specifications, technology to reach the leading level. The path is difficult, but the company still has to implement it. At present, the company has specific plans, but it is not convenient to disclose. At present, the target of 15 million tons in three years is a definite target.
5. After merging into Baowu, what are the changes in the system and mechanism?
According to Baowu culture, it is expected to win the market (surpass the average number of steel), surpass ourselves (higher than the same period last year), and pursue £¤ * (leading the industry, the steel sector enters the top three).
Every three years, the company and Baowu sign a letter of intent, including annual fixed asset investment * * more than half of the profit. Projects that are really promising should be evaluated. At present, there are some problems to be solved in TISCO. One is that the benefit is lower than other Baowu iron and steel enterprises; Another problem in the management of production links, such as intelligent manufacturing, efficient damage control, procurement and sales, production research and so on. The company will enter Baowu modular form, and then there will be a more thorough change (refer to Masteel's high efficiency after one year's incorporation).
In terms of pursuit of £¤ *, the company keeps up with the market. After the concentration of steel industry rises, it does have great advantages, such as interpretation of policies and market prediction. In terms of international prediction, it has great advantages over the former TISCO alone. In addition, the company has advantages in the research industry, and its advantages can be reflected after merging into Baowu. The first quarter is a good example.
6. Pressure drop of crude steel output. Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Hebei, especially Tangshan in the implementation of the policy has some more than expected, impact on steel prices. What is the company's view on the target of MIIT's output pressure drop? Will other provinces assign tasks?
The company believes that after the policy comes out, this is a major trend, and there is a timetable to make the market feel urgent. The company believes that this is the guarantee for the industry to achieve carbon neutral * *. At present, the company has reached ultra-low emission standards by the end of 2019. Environmental protection is a good thing for the industry to avoid disgusting competition due to the reduction of investment in environmental protection. It is a good thing for the company. Many state-owned enterprises invest 500 yuan per ton in environmental protection. The stricter environmental protection policy has little impact on the company. The company has reached ultra-low emission and will not be limited in production£¨ Similar to Shougang)
Taiyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. is the main steel plant in Shanxi Province. Other steel plants in Shanxi Province invest less in environmental protection than Taiyuan Iron and Steel Co., and the pressure on environmental protection will be greater.
7. Under the requirement of carbon neutral, has the company completed the target of 50% market share in three years proposed by Baowu in the form of acquisition and integration?
In the process of stainless steel smelting, the key link is not in blast furnace, but in steelmaking. Relatively speaking, stainless steel can be smelted in a short process. At present, the company adopts three-step smelting. The purchased ferronickel passes through the collecting furnace, and then through AOD and VOD, the compliance components are transferred out to make stainless steel. It is also relatively easy to replace scrap steel for blast furnace, mainly depending on the process route. However, this method may increase the cost of the company. If the purchased ferronickel is put into molten iron, the cost of these two pieces will be about 1000 yuan. Most of the carbon is neutralized and most of the carbon is discharged. One is in the blast furnace, that is, the iron ore is changed into hot metal, and the other is the coke oven, that is, the coke coal is changed into coke. These two areas have relatively large emissions. The carbon emission of short process is 10% of that of long process.
So carbon neutrality is not critical in the acquisition process. It is easier to convert stainless steel to carbon steel, which requires investment. The expansion of the company's capacity in the next step is relatively flexible. There may be acquisitions and most of them are newly built. There is no mandatory requirement. The main reason is that the company is close to the end market and can provide cost advantage in logistics. Therefore, the company is willing to invest in the construction, mainly in terms of the benefit of the company.
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